Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion for SEW NWS Office
788
FXUS66 KSEW 240346
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
746 PM PST Fri Jan 23 2026
.UPDATE...Generally clear skies over much of W WA this evening
although there are a couple of patches of fog in place...but
trending thinner. With temperatures already generally in the 30s for
much of the area, many obs sites already at or near freezing, which
will help to restrict any fog development, although some isolated
stratus may be possible. Inherited forecast handles this well. No
evening updates needed.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...An upper ridge will remain over Western Washington
through the weekend. Cold temperatures are expected during the
overnight periods. A weak system will brush the coast on Monday.
The ridge will rebuild Tuesday before moving inland on Wednesday
as another weak system may reach the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Clear skies across the area
this afternoon with an upper level ridge positioned offshore.
Fraser Outflow continues this afternoon across western Whatcom
County before weakening tonight. The upper ridge will promote
dry conditions through the weekend. The main weather concern
will be cold overnight temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning.
Widespread overnight lows in the 20s are expected both mornings,
with upper teens possible in localized locations. Temperatures
in the metro areas will drop towards 25 degrees tonight into
early Saturday, especially away from the water. For this reason,
have issued a Cold Weather Advisory from Everett to Tacoma,
including portions of the Kitsap Peninsula. The coldest
temperatures will be away from the water, with temps near 30
along the Puget Sound coast. Make sure to wear appropriate
clothing if you`re heading out this weekend. Additional Cold
Weather Advisory headlines may be needed on Sunday. Otherwise,
patchy freezing fog may develop each morning, mainly from
Olympia southwards.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...The aforementioned
upper ridge will flatten late Sunday through Monday as a weak
weather system brushes Western Washington. At this time, any QPF
amounts are expected to remain nominal, if any. The upper ridge
then rebounds on Tuesday for dry weather and warming
temperatures. The ridge axis shifts east Wednesday into Thursday
as a system may approach from offshore. However, uncertainty
continues in the ensembles in regards to the extent of
precipitation over Western Washington, with approximately 40% of
the multi-model ensemble (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) remaining dry
solutions. Either way, little in the way of impacts are expected
for any midweek precipitation. Temperatures will moderate on
Tuesday and remain near to slightly above normal into late week.
JD
&&
.AVIATION...A high-amplitude ridge offshore is maintaining
northwesterly flow aloft across western Washington tonight into
Saturday. VFR conditions prevail across the region with clear skies.
These conditions will continue through much of tonight. There`s a
chance (20-25%) that IFR or lower ceilings may develop early
Saturday morning. Mostly clear skies will continue once again during
the day on Saturday with increasing high clouds late. Northeasterly
winds this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt (except gusts up to 25 kt at
BLI) will slowly ease tonight, becoming light and variable overnight
into Saturday morning. Mostly light N/NE winds expected throughout
the day Saturday.
KSEA...VFR conditions with clear skies. These conditions will
continue through tonight, with 20-25% chance of IFR or lower
ceilings between around 14-19Z Saturday. Winds NE 8-15 kt this
afternoon will decrease to around 5 kt tonight, and remain around
there through Saturday morning.
62/18
&&
.MARINE...Broad high pressure across the northeast Pacific will
remain in place through the first part of next week. A weak
thermal trough along the coast will keep offshore flow
continuing through the rest of today, but winds will start to
weaken tonight and through the weekend. The breeziest winds will
continue through this afternoon in the entrance to the west
Strait of Juan de Fuca, as well as through portions of the
Northern Inland Waters. Gusts up to 20 to 25 kt will continue
this afternoon in these localized spots.
The next period of impactful marine weather doesn`t look to arrive
until later Monday into Tuesday as a frontal system approaches the
west coast and brings back increasing southerly winds.
Seas 3 to 5 ft will continue this weekend, increasing to the 8-12 ft
range Tuesday and into the middle of next week as systems move back
into the area.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding in the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PST
Saturday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett /
Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-Lowlands
of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Shoreline / Lynnwood
/ South Everett Area.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion